Waitlists, Prediction Markets and Admissions Issues
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
The college admissions season is over.April Fool! With the exception of those admitted under Early Decision agreements, senior applicants face some tough choices. Maybe they have acceptances but like waitlist choices better. A college may have admitted them but not to the home campus. Or they could have received merit aid from a college but prefer another that costs significantly more.Who's betting on a smooth journey to May 1, the National Reply Date?
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Prediction Markets: Will Students Go for ED III?
First, it was just Early Decision. Then came ED II to go along with ED I. Now ED III?
A few weeks ago, a student of mine heard from the University of Santa Clara, which had deferred him after he applied Early Action. They were giving him 48 hours to opt in to an Early Decision III. The student was waiting for other decisions to come in.
Sure enough, I found posts about this Santa Clara offer on a Facebook mom's group. Then legendary counselor and author Jim Jump wrote in his blog: "It is certainly possible for a college to give applicants the opportunity to communicate sincere interest without asking them to commit to enroll. SCU is trying to manage admission metrics like yield and admit rate. Heavy use of Early Decision has become a popular enrollment management tool, with a number of highly selective institutions admitting more than half their classes through ED. Jump also asked: "What happens if a student does not respond? Will that be seen as evidence that the student is unlikely to enroll, and will that result in students being waitlisted or denied for that reason alone?"
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Prediction Markets: Can Your Student Really Get Off a Waitlist?
Students think of all different ways to get off a waitlist, including delivering treats in person to admissions offices. Does anything work?Make no mistake about it: the waitlists are for the colleges' benefit, and they can be quite long with only a small percentage receiving offers of admission. Consider these statistics from last year:
The University of Michigan offered waitlist spaces to nearly 25,000 students, and almost 19,000 accepted a spot. U-M admitted 5 percent.
Boston College offered spots to over 7,000 students, and over 4,000 accepted. BC accepted 8.5 percent.
From many years of experience, I advise students to:
Always attend accepted students' days
Make a choice from acceptances rather than waitlist offers
Plan to put in a deposit by May 1, the National Reply Date, with no double deposits
Submit whatever the college requests
Consider writing letters of continued interest for only certain colleges and in a particular style (for more, get in touch!)
Some of my students do get off waitlists. They may get a call or an email giving them just a few days to respond. While we hope that acceptances off waitlists happen as close to May 1 as possible, they may also surprise students who have already grown comfortable with a decision to attend another college.
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Prediction Markets: What About Universities of the Future?
Steven Mintz of UT Austin writes some very thought-provoking articles. So what I saw his piece on What the University of the Future Will Look Like, I had to read on.
Now that campuses have more nontraditional students and those arriving with APs and dual enrollment credits, Mintz argues, "The central challenge is no longer access alone but how to adapt institutions to a student population whose realities no longer match their assumptions." Among his predictions:
There will always be "luxury good universities (i.e., the Princetons, Stanfords, Williamses, Amhersts, and Dukes)."
Less selective colleges that hold on to the traditional model will be have the "appearance of a comprehensive education without its substance."
Universities having separate colleges, like Mintz's own UT Austin, will "increasingly shape their own student bodies, academic programs, and institutional cultures with substantial independence from the university as a whole."
Technology institutes will integrate humanities and social sciences from the beginning of the student experience. (We like that!)
Then there's Ryan Allen, an education professor who shared his opinion in Inside Higher Ed. Allen predicts "a mix of pulling back from the Middleburys and continued expansion pushes by the Vanderbilts." After all, forces such as Vandy, Northeastern, NYU and even Imperial London are buying campuses. He argues, "Whatever happens, there will likely be no reprieve for the small, quirky places that are already struggling."
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Prediction Markets: How Will Small Liberal Arts Colleges Change Their Product Offerings?
Often, students interested in business and finance major in economics, especially if they attend liberal arts colleges. Recently, Lafayette College announced a Finance minor effective with the Class of 2029. In a release, the college indicated that "many people who will be leaders in their fields, be they government leaders or nonprofit or for-profit leaders, need to understand finance and be able to use these tools to advance and achieve their goals.” The program will consist of two courses in economics along with a course in each of ethics, skills and applications, then a capstone.
Another very interdisciplinary institution, the University of Richmond, now has a Center for Liberal Arts and AI (CLAAI). Richmond believes that "perhaps more valuable than any single document is the space the fellowship creates — space for faculty to think deeply across disciplinary and institutional boundaries, to question assumptions, and to prepare students not just for a world with AI, but for critical engagement with it."
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Prediction Markets: AP or Dual Enrollment?
We can't help but be amused - or saddened - by an article in Education Next about the "dumbing down of AP tests." According to the piece, even College Board, owner of the AP program, "admits its questions are easier and passing scores have been lowered on key tests like the English Language exam . . . an adjustment to a less demanding curriculum in high school and lowered expectations by colleges and universities."
Meanwhile, the LA Times states, "The rise of dual enrollment in high school is changing what AP means." Not only do a substantial number of schools offer these courses (they tell us 89 percent), but students can pass and get credit. The experience helps students advocate for themselves and get used to a college experience before the traditional transition.
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Prediction Markets: When Studying Abroad, Will Your Student Interact Mostly with Americans?
Royal watchers know all about St Andrews in Scotland. After all, that's where Will met Kate. But did you know that some 20 percent of St Andrews' undergrads are from the United States? As explained in the Wall Street Journal, "Students worn down by the hypercompetitive, expensive American experience are looking overseas, and St Andrews, a top 5 university in the U.K. with a four-year degree structure, often tops the list."
St Andrews accepts the Common App, while most U.K. universities only accept apps through UCAS. Total costs for those paying full fair are about $66,000 USD, as opposed to nearly $100,000 in the States. And, as a 600-year-old institution, St Andrews is full of tradition. As reinforced in the UK Admissions Academy back in January, admissions are more tied to grades and APs than holistic factors and institutional priorities.
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Hopefully, you are energized by the start of spring and ready for your sophomore or junior to become more involved in the college process. After the holidays, be set up a meeting to address your concerns.
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